Exposure of Population and Energy-Related Base Facilities to Shaking Intensity Predicted for Nankai Megathrust Earthquakes

Abstract

The exposure of the area and population as well as energy-related base facilities to the shaking intensity predicted for the anticipated megathrust earthquakes along the Nankai Trough subduction zones is evaluated. First, area and population exposure is evaluated considering six cases of shaking intensity distribution calculated using strong motion prediction methods and an attenuation formula. Next, the exposure of energy-related base facilities is evaluated for power generation plants, oil refineries, and LNG terminals in terms of their capacities for power generation, oil refining, and storage, respectively. Exposed capacities can be evaluated approximately for arbitrary levels of shaking intensity, providing fundamental information on the potential reduction of energy supply capabilities in an earthquake disaster.