Coseismic Displacement and Recurrence Interval of the 1973 Ragay Gulf Earthquake, Southern Luzon, Philippines

Abstract

The 1973 Ragay Gulf earthquake produced an onshore surface rupture approximately 30 km in length along the Guinayangan segment of the Philippine fault in southern Luzon Island. Through geologic mapping and paleoseismic trenching, we have characterized the amount of coseismic offsets, the average recurrence interval, and the slip rate of the segment. The coseismic offsets we identified in the field were fairly constant along the fault, ranging from 1 to 2 m. Paleoseismic trenching at the Capuluan Tulon site exposed stratigraphic evidence for three or possibly four surfacerupturing events after the deposition of strata dated at AD 410–535. The average recurrence interval was calculated to be 360–780 years, which is close to that for the Digdig fault, the source fault of the 1990 central Luzon earthquake. The slip rate, based on the calculated recurrence interval and offsets during the 1973 earthquake, has been calculated to be 2.1–4.4 mm/yr. This rate is significantly smaller than the geodetic slip and creep rates of 20–25 mm/yr estimated for the Philippine fault on the islands of Masbate and Leyte. The slip rate deficit may be explained by the possibilities of underestimation of the recurrence interval due to possible missing paleoseismic events within the stratigraphic records, the occurrence of larger earthquakes in the past, and the aseismic fault creep between the surface-rupturing earthquakes.