Applicability of a Modified I-D Method for Predicting Slope Failure to Different Slopes

Author:

Danjo Toru1,Ishizawa Tomohiro1

Affiliation:

1. National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED), 3-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0006, Japan

Abstract

The authors have proposed a modified intensity–duration (I-D) method that incorporates field measurements of tensiometer to improve the accuracy of predicting the risk of slope failure. This method uses an indicator that considers the relationship of the duration from the time point at which the saturated zone is assumed to have formed to the average rainfall intensity during that period. The usefulness of this method has been verified, but its applicability to different slopes has not yet been investigated. Here, the authors collected long-term observations on a natural slope in Minamiashigara City, Kanagawa Prefecture, and examined the Modified I-D method using data on slope failures in the surrounding area. The authors also compared the results with plots of previous rainfall index (soil water index–accumulated rainfall in 60 min, effective rainfall amount with a half-life of 72 h–effective rainfall amount with a half-life of 1.5 h, and accumulated rainfall–accumulated rainfall in 60 min). The snake curves for rainfall events during slope failure and non-failure were clearly separated. The accuracy was high, confirming the applicability of the modified I-D method.

Funder

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

Publisher

Fuji Technology Press Ltd.

Subject

Engineering (miscellaneous),Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Reference19 articles.

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2. Y. Ishihara and S. Kobatake, “Runoff model for flood forecasting,” Bulletin of the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Vol.29, No.1, pp. 27-43, 1979.

3. K. Kosugi, “Evaluation of storm events triggering slope failures,” J. of the Japan Society of Erosion Control Engineering, Vol.67, No.5, pp. 12-23, 2015 (in Japanese). https://doi.org/10.11475/sabo.67.5_12

4. Y. Shuin, N. Hotta, Y. Yamakawa, and M. Suzuki, “Evaluation of sediment-related disasters risk with a single rainfall index based on a return period: Case study of Izu-Oshima, Tokyo, Japan,” J. of the Japan Society of Erosion Control Engineering, Vol.71, No.1, pp. 28-34, 2018 (in Japanese). https://doi.org/10.11475/sabo.71.1_28

5. K. Ono and S. Mori, “Analysis of rainfall characteristics for landslide disasters in southwestern part of Ehime Prefecture resulting from the July 2018 heavy rain event,” Japanese Geotechnical J., Vol.16, No.2, pp. 105-115, 2021 (in Japanese). https://doi.org/10.3208/jgs.16.105

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