Effects of Urban Development on Regional Climate Change and Flood Inundation in Jakarta, Indonesia

Abstract

Flood risks associated with changes in land use and climate are a common concern, especially in relation to their potential effects on many cities around the world. Jakarta is a typical urbanized Asian city in Indonesia where flooding presents a consistent challenge. This study aimed to quantify the effects of land use and climate change using a flood inundation model to analyze future urban growth and climate change scenarios. The projected rainfall data of RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3, based on the WRF simulation, were used as inputs for rainfall-runoff and flood inundation simulations in Jakarta. In addition, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, without urban development scenarios, were investigated to determine the effects of urbanization in Jakarta. The results showed that rainfall intensity, peak discharge, and flood inundation generally increased in the high RCP and SSP future scenarios. Significantly, the RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario showed a higher peak discharge value than RCP8.5, owing to the combination of land-use change and increased rainfall. We conclude that the effects of urban development on atmospheric and runoff processes should be considered in climate change studies in urban areas.