Scenario Planning Approach to Pre-Event Planning for Post-Disaster Recovery: The Case of the Future Mega-Tsunami Striking Kushimoto, Japan

Author:

Kondo Tamiyo, ,Takemoto Shogo

Abstract

Previous studies have argued the significance of pre-event planning for post-disaster recovery. We examined how scenario planning approach is effective for pre-disaster planning. We applied scenario planning approach to develop strategies for multiple possible futures of the case study city, expected to hit by a massive tsunami following the Nankai Trough earthquake. Our analysis reveals the adaptive and transformative strategies for multiple scenarios. Uncertainty surrounding dynamic recovery processes need to enforce transformative strategies to reframe the Japanese planning paradigm in post-disaster recovery.

Funder

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science

Kobe University

Publisher

Fuji Technology Press Ltd.

Subject

Engineering (miscellaneous),Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Reference23 articles.

1. W. Wade, “Scenario Planning: A Field Guide to the Future,” John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2012.

2. “New Kushimoto-Town Office to the Higher Ground,” Kii Minpou, May 14, 2021, https://www.agara.co.jp/article/123914 (in Japanese) [accessed October 6, 2021]

3. S. Nagamatsu and H. Hayashi, “Economic Recovery Scenario Planning for the Tokyo Inland Earthquake,” ESRI Discussion Paper Series, No.250, 2010 (in Japanese).

4. N. Maki, “Pre-Disaster Recovery Planning at the Possible Tsunami Impacted Area from the Nankai Trough Earthquake,” City Planning Review, Vol.70, No.2, pp. 76-79, 2021 (in Japanese).

5. R. Kakimoto and Y. Kurohiji, “The Issue of Emergency Rehabilitation Directly After 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake,” J. of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser.D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), Vol.75, No.5, pp. I_117-I_127, 2019 (in Japanese).

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