Challenges in Adaptation of Plant Disease Warning Systems to New Locations: Re-Appraisal of Billing's Integrated System for Predicting Fire Blight in a Warm Dry Environment

Abstract

The purpose of this letter is to describe approaches and possible pitfalls when a fire blight model developed in one climatic area is evaluated in a new location where weather conditions are markedly different. A case is described where a modified form of Billing's integrated system, BIS95, which was developed in a cool moist climate, was tested in a country where weather is warmer and drier. Prior to this, some features of fire blight epidemiology, management, and risk assessment are outlined.