Accuracy of Rain Forecasts for Use in Scheduling Late Blight Management Tactics in the Columbia Basin of Washington and Oregon

Abstract

Accuracy of prediction was analyzed for 17- and 30-day rain forecasts at two locations in the Columbia Basin to determine whether forecasts were sufficiently accurate to be included as a model component to schedule fungicide applications for potato late blight. Accuracy was partitioned into specificity (percentage of forecasted nonrainfall events classified correctly) and sensitivity (percentage of forecasted daily rainfall events classified correctly). An adjusted sensitivity, which included the forecasted rain day plus the next 2 days, was also used to give a wider target than only 1 day for evaluating accuracy of forecasted rain events. For 17-day forecasts, specificity during the seasonal test period was ≥70% from mid-June through September and specificity over the days of the forecast was >70% for the first 8 days at both locations both years. Adjusted sensitivity over days of the forecast was initially >80% and then decreased as forecasts increased from 7 to 17 days for 17-day forecasts at both locations and years. Sensitivity and adjusted sensitivity during the seasonal test period were both positively correlated with the number of rainy days while specificity was negatively correlated. Adjusted sensitivity was considerably higher for May (month with highest incidence of rain) than July (month with lowest incidence of rain) at both locations. For 30-day forecasts, specificity during the test period was >75% in July and August and adjusted sensitivity ranged from 60 to 100% for time periods occurring in May and June during both sample seasons. Specificity was generally above 80% as days of the forecast increased and adjusted sensitivity varied greatly over days of the forecasts, with extremes between 0 and 100% at both locations and years for the 30-day forecasts. Specificity of 17- and 30-day rain forecasts and adjusted sensitivity of 17-day rain forecasts have utility in scheduling late blight fungicides in the Columbia Basin.