Author:
TADEVOSYAN ZOYA,KIRAKOSYAN VERGINE,MKRTCHYAN HAMLET,MATEVOSYAN DIANA
Abstract
This article is devoted to assessing the impact of external shocks on the economy
of the Republic of Armenia (RA) in 2008-2009 (the global financial crisis), 2020 (the
Covid-19 pandemic and the 44-day Artsakh war), and in 2022 (the Russian-Ukrainianconflict) and the measurement and analysis of the consequences. The work on assessing
the impact of crises and external shocks on the country's economy is of a different
nature. An attempt is made to assess not only the actual consequences of shocks, but
also the amount of losses/damage that manifested itself in the RA economy throughout
the entire post-shock period։ uncreated result, lost income.
Methods of statistical analysis, such as dynamic series indicators, averages,
structural analysis, smoothing trends in series, modeling with dummy variables were
used. To understand the mechanisms of the impact of external shocks, we have applied
internationally recognized indicators of the distribution of GDP: the formation of GDP
by sectors and the use of GDP.
As a result of the study, it has turned out that if at the beginning of the period
under consideration the RA economy was more sensitive to external factors causing
fluctuations in the industry sector, then recently it has already been sensitive in the
service sector. It has also turned out that the wave of the crisis of 2007-2009 had
serious and long-term consequences, shook the RA economy, and broke the growth
potential for almost a decade. On the contrary, the geopolitical events of 2022 have
already created favorable conditions for unprecedented economic growth in the RA.
Publisher
Messenger of Armenian State University of Economics, Armenian State University of Economics
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