The Impact of Global and Regional Crises on the Economy of the Republic of Armenia։ Quantitative Evaluation

Author:

TADEVOSYAN ZOYA,KIRAKOSYAN VERGINE,MKRTCHYAN HAMLET,MATEVOSYAN DIANA

Abstract

This article is devoted to assessing the impact of external shocks on the economy of the Republic of Armenia (RA) in 2008-2009 (the global financial crisis), 2020 (the Covid-19 pandemic and the 44-day Artsakh war), and in 2022 (the Russian-Ukrainianconflict) and the measurement and analysis of the consequences. The work on assessing the impact of crises and external shocks on the country's economy is of a different nature. An attempt is made to assess not only the actual consequences of shocks, but also the amount of losses/damage that manifested itself in the RA economy throughout the entire post-shock period։ uncreated result, lost income. Methods of statistical analysis, such as dynamic series indicators, averages, structural analysis, smoothing trends in series, modeling with dummy variables were used. To understand the mechanisms of the impact of external shocks, we have applied internationally recognized indicators of the distribution of GDP: the formation of GDP by sectors and the use of GDP. As a result of the study, it has turned out that if at the beginning of the period under consideration the RA economy was more sensitive to external factors causing fluctuations in the industry sector, then recently it has already been sensitive in the service sector. It has also turned out that the wave of the crisis of 2007-2009 had serious and long-term consequences, shook the RA economy, and broke the growth potential for almost a decade. On the contrary, the geopolitical events of 2022 have already created favorable conditions for unprecedented economic growth in the RA.

Publisher

Messenger of Armenian State University of Economics, Armenian State University of Economics

Reference51 articles.

1. Al-Rodhan , N. (8 May, 2020). Retrieved from: Global Policy Journal. https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/08/05/2020/metageopolitics-pandemics-case- covid-19

2. Ayvazyan, K., & Dabán, T. (2008). IMF. Retrieved from: Policy Forum Armenia. Implications of the World’s Financial Crisis for Armenia’s Economy. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15241.pdf

3. Azam, J.-P., & Hoeffler, A. (2002). Violence against civilians in civil wars: Looting or terror? Journal of Peace Research, 39(4), 461-485. https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/unuwpaper/dp2001-46.htm

4. Baldwin, R., & Tomiura, E. (2020). Thinking ahead about the trade impact of covid-19. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research. https://repository.graduateinstitute.ch/record/298220?ln=en

5. Bartik, A., Bertrand, M., Cullen, Z., Glaeser, E., Luca, M., & Stanton, C. (2020). How are small businesses adjusting to COVID19? early evidence from a survey. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research. doi:10.3386/w26989

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3