Prediction Model for Various Elements of Glass Artifacts Based on Probability Distribution

Abstract

During the weathering process of glass, its internal and external environments undergo complex exchange of elements, resulting in the possibility that archaeologists may misjudge the category of glass due to the changes in the percentage of its components. In this paper, the data used is from the C problem of the 2022 Contemporary Undergraduate Mathematical Contest in Modeling to fit the probability distribution of each component in glass using a logistic model, and established a prediction model based on the probability distribution. The results demonstrate that the model has a good interpretation in the prediction of the chemical composition content of glass.