The Changing Trends and International Comparison of Chinese Women's Fertility Pattern under Low Fertility Level

Abstract

Using data from Chinese national population censuses and 1% population sampling surveys from 2000 to 2020, by analyzing the age-specific fertility contribution rate curve, the Mean age at birth, the Standard deviation in Mean age at birth in different years, and comparing with the transformation process of fertility pattern in developed countries, this paper analyses the changing trends in Chinese women's fertility pattern under low fertility level. The results find that under low fertility level, the growth rate of Chinese women's Mean age at birth turns from fast to slow, the dispersion of fertility pattern rises first and then falls, and the distribution of child-bearing age is overall postponed. Compared with developed countries, the transformation of Chinese women's fertility pattern started late, changed quickly, and fluctuated greatly, from significantly lagging behind the general transformation process of fertility pattern in developed countries to rapidly approaching the average level of fertility pattern in developed countries. The adjustment of Chinese fertility policy has had a significant impact on the fertility pattern, leading to a turning point in the changing trends of the fertility pattern after 2010. With the development of economy and society and the continuous adjustment of fertility policy, the future fertility pattern of Chinese women may show trends that women's child-bearing age will continue to rise, but the dispersion of fertility pattern will slightly decline in fluctuations.