Research on Wordle Guessing Game Result Prediction Based on SIRS Model and Simulation

Abstract

Wordle is a daily word guessing game where players aim to guess a five-letter word in six or fewer attempts. To predict user participation, this study establishes a SIRS model to explain and predict the quantity of reported results, based on an analysis of the text propagation mechanism. To predict user guessing results, the player group is divided into entertainment players and strategic players. An Analog Simulation Model is established to simulate the word-filling process of these two types of players, thereby obtaining the result distribution for these two types of players. Subsequently, the Bayesian formula is used to calculate the proportions of entertainment players and strategic players, which are found to be 75.3% and 24.7%, respectively. However, given that each player's intuition, proficiency in different words, and desire to share vary, it is posited that individual player differences impact the predictions.