The Relationship between Stock Prices and Silver Future Prices Based on VAR Model

Abstract

Despite recent dramatic increases in the prices of coal, oil, natural gas, and other fossil energy futures, some of which have hit successive record highs, related stocks have seen substantial decreases. The price trend of commodities is typically driven by commodity futures, which serve as price discoverers. There is a relationship between futures and stocks in the market, meaning that when the price of the futures contract for a particular commodity rises, so will the price of the stock of the company that produces the commodity because investors anticipate rising earnings. But does the price of futures vary when the stock price does? Based on the findings of the VAR model and Granger causality test, this study concludes that the stock price, whether it be the current price or the historical earnings, does not significantly affect the futures price. Futures prices have a significant impact on future stock prices. This would facilitate investment decision-making.