A mathematical model of COVID-19 using fractional derivative: outbreak in India with dynamics of transmission and control

Abstract

AbstractSince the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) detected on 30 January, 2020, in India, the number of cases rapidly increased to 3819 cases including 106 deaths as of 5 April, 2020. Taking this into account, in the present work, we have analysed a Bats–Hosts–Reservoir–People transmission fractional-order COVID-19 model for simulating the potential transmission with the thought of individual response and control measures by the government. The real data available about number of infected cases from 14 March, 2000 to 26 March, 2020 is analysed and, accordingly, various parameters of the model are estimated or fitted. The Picard successive approximation technique and Banach’s fixed point theory have been used for verification of the existence and stability criteria of the model. Further, we conduct stability analysis for both disease-free and endemic equilibrium states. On the basis of sensitivity analysis and dynamics of the threshold parameter, we estimate the effectiveness of preventive measures, predicting future outbreaks and potential control strategies of the disease using the proposed model. Numerical computations are carried out utilising the iterative Laplace transform method and comparative study of different fractional differential operators is done. The impacts of various biological parameters on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is investigated. Finally, we illustrate the obtained results graphically.