Stochastic model of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

AbstractIn this paper, we formulate an SVITR deterministic model and extend it to a stochastic model by introducing intensity of stochastic factors and Brownian motion. Our basic qualitative analysis of both models includes the positivity of the solution, invariant region, disease-free equilibrium point, basic reproduction number, local and global stability of disease-free equilibrium point, endemic equilibrium point, and sensitivity. We obtain the stochastic reproduction number and local stability by using twice differentiable Itô’s formula. We prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point by using a Lyapunov function. We determine the sensitivity of the effect of each parameter on basic reproduction number of the model by using a normalized sensitivity index formula. On the other hand, we demonstrate numerical simulation results of deterministic and stochastic models of COVID-19 by using Maple 18 and MATLAB software. Our simulation results indicate that reducing the contact between infected and susceptible individuals and improvement of treatment play a vital role in COVID-19 pandemic control.