Three-month early change in prostate-specific antigen levels as a predictive marker for overall survival during hormonal therapy for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer

Abstract

Abstract Objective To date, there are no useful markers for predicting the prognosis of metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC). We evaluated the effect of early changes in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels after androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) on castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) progression and overall survival (OS) in mHSPC patients. Results In 71 primary mHSPC patients treated with ADT, the median times to CRPC and OS were 15 months and 92 months, respectively. In multivariate analysis, a Gleason score of ≥ 8 (p = 0.004), an extent of disease value (EOD) of ≥ 2 (p = 0.004), and a 3-month PSA level > 1% of the pretreatment level (p = 0.017) were independent predictors of shorter time to CRPC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was feasible at 0.822. A 3-month PSA level > 1% of the pretreatment level was an independent predictor of OS (p = 0.004). Three factors were independent predictors of shorter time to CRPC. A 3-month PSA level > 1% of the pretreatment level correlated with a poor prognosis.