Prediction of present and future distribution of the Schlegel’s Japanese gecko (Gekko japonicus) using MaxEnt modeling

Abstract

Abstract Background Understanding the geographical distribution of a species is a key component of studying its ecology, evolution, and conservation. Although Schlegel’s Japanese gecko (Gekko japonicus) is widely distributed in Northeast Asia, its distribution has not been studied in detail. We predicted the present and future distribution of G. japonicus across China, Japan, and Korea based on 19 climatic and 5 environmental variables using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model. Results Present time major suitable habitats for G. japonicus, having greater than 0.55 probability of presence (threshold based on the average predicted probability of the presence records), are located at coastal and inland cities of China; western, southern, and northern coasts of Kyushu and Honshu in Japan; and southern coastal cities of Korea. Japan contained 69.3% of the suitable habitats, followed by China (27.1%) and Korea (4.2%). Temperature seasonality (66.5% of permutation importance) was the most important predictor of the distribution. Future distributions according to two climate change scenarios predicted that by 2070, and overall suitable habitats would decrease compared to the present habitats by 18.4% (scenario RCP 4.5) and 10.4% (scenario RCP 8.5). In contrast to these overall trends, range expansions are expected in inland areas of China and southern parts of Korea. Conclusions Suitable habitats predicted for G. japonicus are currently located in coastal cities of Japan, China, and Korea, as well as in isolated patches of inland China. Due to climate change, suitable habitats are expected to shrink along coastlines, particularly at the coastal-edge of climate change zones. Overall, our results provide essential distribution range information for future ecological studies of G. japonicus across its distribution range.