New metabolic health definition might not be a reliable predictor for mortality in the nonobese Chinese population

Abstract

Abstract Background Recently, a new metabolic health (MH) definition was developed from NHANES-III. In the origin study, the definition may stratify mortality risks in people who are overweight or normal weight. We aimed to investigate the association between the new MH definition and all-cause mortality in a nonobese Chinese population. Methods The data were collected in 1992 and then again in 2007 from the same group of 1157 participants. The association between the new MH definition and all-cause mortality were analyzed by Cox regression models with overlap weighting according to propensity score (PS) as primary analysis. Results At baseline in 1992, 920 (79.5%) participants were categorized as MH, and 237 (20.5%) participants were categorized as metabolically unhealthy (MUH) based on this new definition. During a median follow-up of 15 years, all-cause mortality occurred in 17 (1.85%) participants in MH group and 13 (5.49%) in MUH group, respectively. In the crude sample, Kaplan–Meier analysis demonstrated a significantly higher all-cause mortality in MUH group when compared to MH group (log-rank p = 0.002), and MUH was significantly associated with increased all-cause mortality when compared to MH with HR at 3.04 (95% CI: 1.47–6.25, p = 0.003). However, Kaplan–Meier analysis with overlap weighting showed that the cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality was not significantly different between MH and MUH groups (adjusted p = 0.589). Furthermore, in the primary multivariable Cox analysis with overlap weighting, adjusted HR for all-cause mortality was 1.42 (95% CI: 0.49—4.17, p = 0.519) in MUH group in reference to MH group. Other additional PS analyses also showed the incidence of all-cause mortality was not significantly different between the two groups. Conclusion The new MH definition may be not appropriate for mortality risk stratification in non-obese Chinese people. Further investigations are needed.