Mapping and predicting open defecation in Ethiopia: 2021 PMA-ET study

Abstract

Abstract Introduction There has been extensive research conducted on open defecation in Ethiopia, but a notable gap persists in comprehensively understanding the spatial variation and predictors at the household level. This study utilizes data from the 2021 Performance Monitoring for Action Ethiopia (PMA-ET) to address this gap by identifying hotspots and predictors of open defecation. Employing geographically weighted regression analysis, it goes beyond traditional models to account for spatial heterogeneity, offering a nuanced understanding of geographical variations in open defecation prevalence and its determinants. This research pinpoints hotspot areas and significant predictors, aiding policymakers and practitioners in tailoring interventions effectively. It not only fills the knowledge gap in Ethiopia but also informs global sanitation initiatives. Methods The study comprised a total weighted sample of 24,747 household participants. ArcGIS version 10.7 and SaT Scan version 9.6 were used to handle mapping, hotspots, ordinary least squares, Bernoulli model analysis, and Spatial regression. Bernoulli-based model was used to analyze the purely spatial cluster detection of open defecation at the household level in Ethiopia. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) analysis and geographically weighted regression analysis were employed to assess the association between an open defecation and explanatory variables. Results The spatial distribution of open defecation at the household level exhibited clustering (global Moran’s I index value of 4.540385, coupled with a p-value of less than 0.001), with significant hotspots identified in Amhara, Afar, Harari, and parts of Dire Dawa. Spatial analysis using Kuldorff’s Scan identified six clusters, with four showing statistical significance (P-value < 0.05) in Amhara, Afar, Harari, Tigray, and southwest Ethiopia. In the geographically weighted regression model, being male [coefficient = 0.87, P-value < 0.05] and having no media exposure (not watching TV or listening to the radio) [coefficient = 0.47, P-value < 0.05] emerged as statistically significant predictors of household-level open defecation in Ethiopia. Conclusion The study revealed that open defecation at the household level in Ethiopia varies across the regions, with significant hotspots identified in Amhara, Afar, Harari, and parts of Dire Dawa. Geographically weighted regression analysis highlights male participants lacking media exposure as substantial predictors of open defecation. Targeted interventions in Ethiopia should improve media exposure among males in hotspot regions, tailored sanitation programs, and region-specific awareness campaigns. Collaboration with local communities is crucial.