Spatial-temporal trends in the risk of illicit drug toxicity death in British Columbia

Abstract

Abstract Background Illicit drug poisoning (overdose) continues to be an important public health problem with overdose-related deaths currently recorded at an unprecedented level. Understanding the geographic variations in fatal overdose mortality is necessary to avoid disproportionate risk resulting from service access inequity. Methods We estimated the odds of fatal overdose per event from all cases captured by the overdose surveillance system in British Columbia (2015 - 2018), using both conventional logistic regression and Generalized Additive Models (GAM). The results of GAM were mapped to identify spatial-temporal trends in the risk of fatal overdose. Results We found that the odds of fatal overdose were about 30% higher in rural areas than in large urban centers, with some regions reporting odds 50% higher than others. Temporal variations in fatal overdose revealed an increasing trend over the entire province. However, the increase occurred earlier and faster in the Interior and Northern regions. Conclusion Rural areas were disproportionately affected by fatal overdose; lack of access to harm reduction services may partly explain the elevated risk in these areas.