Risk of diabetes and expected years in life without diabetes among adults from an urban community in India: findings from a retrospective cohort

Abstract

Abstract Background Diabetes prevalence has increased over the past few decades, and the shift of the burden of diabetes from the older population to the younger population has increased the exposure of longer durations in a morbid state. The study aimed at ascertaining the likelihood of progression to diabetes and to estimate the onset of diabetes within the urban community of Mumbai. Methods This study utilized an observational retrospective non-diabetic cohort comprising 1629 individuals enrolled in a health security scheme. Ten years of data were extracted from electronic medical records, and the life table approach was employed to assess the probability of advancing to diabetes and estimate the expected number of years lived without a diabetes diagnosis. Results The study revealed a 42% overall probability of diabetes progression, with age and gender variations. Males (44%) show higher probabilities than females (40%) of developing diabetes. Diabetes likelihood rises with age, peaking in males aged 55–59 and females aged 65–69. Males aged 30–34 exhibit a faster progression (10.6 years to diagnosis) compared to females (12.3 years). Conclusion The study’s outcomes have significant implications for the importance of early diabetes detection. Progression patterns suggest that younger cohorts exhibit a comparatively slower rate of progression compared to older cohorts.