Author:
Han Changwoo,Jang Hoyeon,Oh Juhwan
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Although the ongoing epidemics of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may have affected the mortality trend of the nation, the national level assessment of excess mortality (changes in overall mortality in the entire population) is still scarce in Korea. Therefore, this study evaluated the excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea using the certified mortality data.
Methods
Monthly mortality and population data from January 2013 to June 2022 was obtained from the National Health Insurance Service database and Statistics Korea. A quasi-Poisson interrupted time-series model adjusted for age structure, population, seasonality, and long-term trends was used to estimate the counterfactual projections (expected) of mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020 to June 2022). The absolute difference (observed—expected) and ratio (observed / expected) of mortality were calculated. Stratified analysis based on pandemic years (years 2020, 2021, and 2022), sex, and age groups (aged 0–4, 5–19, 20–64, and ≥ 65 years) were conducted.
Results
An 8.7% increase in mortality was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic [absolute difference: 61,277 persons; ratio (95% confidence interval (CI)): 1.087 (1.066, 1.107)]. The gap between observed and estimated mortality became wider with continuation of the pandemic [ratio (95% CI), year 2020: 1.021 (1.003, 1.040); year 2021: 1.060 (1.039, 1.080), year 2022: 1.244 (1.219, 1.270)]. Although excess mortality across sex was similar, the adult [aged 20–64, ratio (95% CI): 1.059 (1.043, 1.076)] and elderly [aged 65-, ratio (95% CI): 1.098 (1.062, 1.135)] population showed increased excess mortality during the pandemic.
Conclusions
Despite Korea's successful quarantine policy response, the continued epidemic has led to an excess mortality. The estimated mortality exceeded the number of deaths from COVID-19 infection. Excess mortality should be monitored to estimate the overall impact of the pandemic on a nation.
Funder
Chungnam National University
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Reference66 articles.
1. Guan WJ, Ni ZY, Hu Y, Liang WH, Ou CQ, He JX, Liu L, Shan H, Lei CL, Hui DSC, et al. Clinical characteristics of Coronavirus disease 2019 in China. N Engl J Med. 2020;382(18):1708–20.
2. Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, Ren L, Zhao J, Hu Y, Zhang L, Fan G, Xu J, Gu X, et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan. China Lancet. 2020;395(10223):497–506.
3. World Health Organization. COVID-19 Weekly Epidemiological Update (Edition 105 published 17 August 2022). 2022. Available at: https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/weekly-epidemiological-update-on-covid-19---17-august-2022.
4. Islam N, Shkolnikov VM, Acosta RJ, Klimkin I, Kawachi I, Irizarry RA, et al. Excess deaths associated with Covid-19 pandemic in 2020: age and sex disaggregated time series analysis in 29 high income countries. BMJ. 2021;373:n1137.
5. Woolf SH, Chapman DA, Sabo RT, Zimmerman EB. Excess deaths from COVID-19 and other causes in the US, March 1, 2020, to January 2, 2021. JAMA. 2021;325(17):1786–9.
Cited by
3 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献