Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on hepatitis B and forecasting the epidemiological trend in mainland China: a causal analysis

Abstract

Abstract Background It is uncertain how COVID-19 outbreak influences the hepatitis B epidemics. This study aims to evaluate the effects on hepatitis B owing to the COVID-19 outbreak and forecast the hepatitis B epidemiological trend in mainland China to speed up the course of the “End viral hepatitis Strategy”. Methods We estimated the causal impacts and created a forecast through adopting monthly notifications of hepatitis B each year from 2005 to 2020 in mainland China using the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Results The hepatitis B epidemics fluctuates irregularly during the period 2005–2007(APC = 8.7, P = 0.246) and 2015–2020(APC = 1.7, P = 0.290), and there is a downturn (APC=-3.2, 95% CI -5.2 to -1.2, P = 0.006) from 2007 to 2015 in mainland China. The COVID-19 outbreak was found to have a monthly average reduction on the hepatitis B epidemics of 26% (95% CI 18–35%) within the first three months in 2020,17% (95% CI 7.7–26%) within the first six months in 2020, and 10% (95% CI19–22%) all year as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, (probability of causal effect = 96.591%, P = 0.034) and the forecasts showed an upward trend from 2021 to 2025 (annual percentage change = 4.18, 95% CI 4.0 to 4.3, P < 0.001). Conclusion The COVID-19 has a positive effect on the decline of hepatitis B cases. And the potential of BSTS model to forecast the epidemiological trend of the hepatitis B can be applied in automatic public health policymaking in mainland China.