Author:
Wu Yijun,Liu Hongzhi,Zeng Jianxing,Chen Yifan,Fang Guoxu,Zhang Jinyu,Zhou Weiping,Zeng Yongyi,Liu Jingfeng
Abstract
Abstract
Background and objectives
Combined hepatocellular cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC) has a high incidence of early recurrence. The objective of this study is to construct a model predicting very early recurrence (VER) (i.e., recurrence within 6 months after surgery) of cHCC.
Methods
One hundred thirty-one consecutive patients from Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital served as a development cohort to construct a nomogram predicting VER by using multi-variable logistic regression analysis. The model was internally and externally validated in a validation cohort of 90 patients from Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital using the C concordance statistic, calibration analysis, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
Results
The VER nomogram contains microvascular invasion (MiVI), macrovascular invasion (MaVI), and CA19-9 > 25 mAU/mL. The model shows good discrimination with C-indexes of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69–0.85) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.66–0.86) in the development cohort and validation cohort respectively. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the model is clinically useful and the calibration of our model was favorable. Our model stratified patients into two different risk groups, which exhibited significantly different VER.
Conclusions
Our model demonstrated favorable performance in predicting VER in cHCC patients.
Funder
Fuzhou Science and Technology Bureau project
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Cited by
7 articles.
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