Naples prognostic score, a novel prognostic score for patients with high- and intermediate-risk gastrointestinal stromal tumours after surgical resection

Abstract

Abstract Background A novel multidimensional inflammatory and nutritional assessment system named the Naples prognostic score could serve as an independent prognostic indicator. However, its significance in patients with high- and intermediate-risk gastrointestinal stromal tumours remains unclear. Methods We performed this retrospective cohort study based on a prospectively collected database of gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs) between March 2010 and December 2019. The Kaplan–Meier method and log-rank test were used for survival analyses. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used for univariate and multivariate analyses. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to evaluate the discriminatory ability of the prognostic scoring systems. Differences in the areas under the curve were further compared. Results A total of 405 patients with regular follow-up were included and analysed in this study. Significant differences in progression-free survival and overall survival were observed between the groups (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the NPS was a significant predictor of poor progression-free survival (1 vs 0, HR = 4.622, P = 0.001; 2 vs 0, HR = 12.770, P < 0.001) and overall survival (2 vs 0, HR = 5.535, P = 0.002). Furthermore, time-dependent AUC analyses showed that the NPS was more accurate than other haematologic prognostic systems. Conclusions The present study demonstrates that the NPS could independently predict disease progression and survival among patients with high- and intermediate-risk GISTs. The NPS might be regarded and applied as one of the most convenient and effective preoperative risk stratification tools in the future, which should be validated by large-scale multicentre prospective cohort studies.