The obesity paradox and 90 day mortality in chronic critically ill patients: a cohort study using a large clinical database

Abstract

Abstract Background This study investigates the obesity paradox, where obesity is linked to lower mortality in certain patient groups, focusing on its impact on long-term mortality in chronic critically ill (CCI) patients. Methods We retrospectively analyzed CCI patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database’s Intensive Care Unit, categorizing them into six groups based on Body Mass Index (BMI). Using stepwise multivariable Cox regression and restricted cubic spline models, we examined the association between BMI and 90 day mortality, accounting for confounding variables through subgroup analyses. Results The study included 1996 CCI patients, revealing a 90 day mortality of 34.12%. Overweight and obese patients exhibited significantly lower mortality compared to normal-weight individuals. Adjusted analysis showed lower mortality risks in overweight and obese groups (HRs 0.60 to 0.72, p < 0.001). The cubic spline model indicated a negative correlation between BMI and 90 day mortality, with subgroup analyses highlighting interactions with age. Conclusion Our findings confirm the obesity paradox in CCI patients, especially among the elderly (65–85 years) and very elderly (≥ 85 years). The results suggest a beneficial association of higher BMI in older CCI patients, though caution is advised for those under 45.