A design of new wind power forecasting approach based on IVMD-WSA-IC-LSTM model

Abstract

AbstractThe wind power forecasting (WPF) technology can reduce the adverse impact of wind power grid connection. Based on the characteristics of wind power data, an algorithm based on improved variational mode decomposition (IVMD) and long short-term memory (LSTM) Network is proposed to predict the wind power, and hyper parameter optimization search of LSTM using Whale Swarm Algorithm with Iterative Counter (WSA-IC). Firstly, through correlation analysis, the characteristics of 10 different wind power data are screened, and two kinds of data with large correlation with wind power are determined as input of the mode. Secondly, IVMD is used to calculate the maximum envelope kurtosis, determine the best decomposition parameters of the variational mode decomposition (VMD), and the original wind power and wind speed sequences are decomposed to obtain the IMF with different time scales. Finally, to address the problems of difficult optimization of hyper parameter and difficulty in obtaining optimal solutions for LSTM neural network modes, the WSA-IC algorithm is proposed to optimize its key hyper parameter, and the IVMD-WSA-IC-LSTM forecasting mode is established to obtain the short-term forecasting results of wind power. The algorithm is tested with the data of China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited. Compared with other common forecasting approaches using same data, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the forecasting approach is reduced to 0.007859, the mean square error (MSE) is reduced to 0.00011, and the determination coefficient is improved to 0.998828, which has higher forecasting accuracy.