Redefining doubt in cases of uncertainty: an analysis of the 2023 US DoD Law of War Manual revision to the presumption of civilian status in armed conflict

Abstract

AbstractThe third edition of the United States (US) Department of Defense Law of War Manual, updated in December 2016 (2015 DoD Manual) states that “[u]nder customary international law, no legal presumption of civilian status exists for persons or objects”. The 2015 Manual received general support from military circles, but some experts believed that rejecting the customary international law (CIL) status of the presumption of civilian status in instances of doubt was an apparent mistake or important error. The 2023 US DoD Law of War Manual (2023 Manual) has now been promulgated with a revision to the doubt rule. Doubt regarding the character of persons or the nature of dedicated civilian objects results in a “presumption” of civilian status “unless the information available indicates that the persons or objects are military objectives”. The 2023 Manual attracted criticism, with some experts, especially those with military experience, arguing that it is counterproductive to incorporate exponentially legalistic or complex, nuanced judgements about status determinations, presumptions and the sufficiency of rebuttal evidence in practical matters such as targeting decisions. The article evaluates the substance and implications of the revision to the doubt rule in the 2023 Manual. The article further considers whether the doubt rule regarding the civilian character of persons and the nature of certain objects has acquired customary international humanitarian law status. Ultimately, the article concludes that is not realistic to include a presumption for application in targeting decisions due to the complexities of applying legalistic concepts during armed conflict.