Blowing in the wind? Testing the effect of weather on the spatial distribution of crime using Generalized Additive Models

Author:

Hart RannveigORCID,Pedersen Willy,Skardhamar Torbjørn

Abstract

AbstractOslo, the capital of Norway, is situated in a North European cool climate zone. We investigate the effect of weather on the overall level of crime in the city, as well as the impact of different aspects of weather (temperature, wind speed, precipitation) on the spatial distribution of crime, net of both total level of crime, time of day and seasonality. Geocoded locations of criminal offences were combined with data on temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) allowed us to map level of and the spatial distribution of crime, and how it was impacted by weather, in a more robust manner than in previous studies. There was slightly more crime in pleasurable weather (i.e. low precipitation and wind speed and high temperatures). However, neither temperature, precipitation nor wind speed impacted the spatial distribution of crime in the city.

Funder

Norges Forskningsråd

Norwegian Institute of Public Health

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Law,Urban Studies,Cultural Studies,Safety Research

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