Effectiveness of potential antiviral treatments in COVID-19 transmission control: a modelling study
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Published:2021-04-19
Issue:1
Volume:10
Page:
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ISSN:2049-9957
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Container-title:Infectious Diseases of Poverty
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Infect Dis Poverty
Author:
Lin Sheng-Nan, Rui Jia, Chen Qiu-Ping, Zhao Bin, Yu Shan-Shan, Li Zhuo-Yang, Zhao Ze-Yu, Wang Yao, Zhu Yuan-Zhao, Xu Jing-Wen, Yang Meng, Liu Xing-Chun, Yang Tian-Long, Luo Li, Deng Bin, Huang Jie-Feng, Liu Chan, Li Pei-Hua, Liu Wei-Kang, Xie Fang, Chen Yong, Su Yan-Hua, Zhao Ben-Hua, Chiang Yi-Chen, Chen Tian-MuORCID
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Although public health countermeasures effectively controlled the epidemic in China, non-pharmaceutical interventions can neither be maintained indefinitely nor conveniently implemented globally. Vaccination is mainly used to prevent COVID-19, and most current antiviral treatment evaluations focus on clinical efficacy. Therefore, we conducted population-based simulations to assess antiviral treatment effectiveness among different age groups based on its clinical efficacy.
Methods
We collected COVID-19 data of Wuhan City from published literature and established a database (from 2 December 2019 to 16 March 2020). We developed an age-specific model to evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral treatment in patients with COVID-19. Efficacy was divided into three types: (1) viral activity reduction, reflected as transmission rate decrease [reduction was set as v (0–0.8) to simulate hypothetical antiviral treatments]; (2) reduction in the duration time from symptom onset to patient recovery/removal, reflected as a 1/γ decrease (reduction was set as 1–3 days to simulate hypothetical or real-life antiviral treatments, and the time of asymptomatic was reduced by the same proportion); (3) fatality rate reduction in severely ill patients (fc) [reduction (z) was set as 0.3 to simulate real-life antiviral treatments]. The population was divided into four age groups (groups 1, 2, 3 and 4), which included those aged ≤ 14; 15–44; 45–64; and ≥ 65 years, respectively. Evaluation indices were based on outbreak duration, cumulative number of cases, total attack rate (TAR), peak date, number of peak cases, and case fatality rate (f).
Results
Comparing the simulation results of combination and single medication therapy s, all four age groups showed better results with combination medication. When 1/γ = 2 and v = 0.4, age group 2 had the highest TAR reduction rate (98.48%, 56.01–0.85%). When 1/γ = 2, z = 0.3, and v = 0.1, age group 1 had the highest reduction rate of f (83.08%, 0.71–0.12%).
Conclusions
Antiviral treatments are more effective in COVID-19 transmission control than in mortality reduction. Overall, antiviral treatments were more effective in younger age groups, while older age groups showed higher COVID-19 prevalence and mortality. Therefore, physicians should pay more attention to prevention of viral spread and patients deaths when providing antiviral treatments to patients of older age groups.
Funder
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation the Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province the Xiamen New Coronavirus Prevention and Control Emergency Tackling Special Topic Program
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Infectious Diseases,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,General Medicine
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