Modeling in Earth system science up to and beyond IPCC AR5

Abstract

Abstract Changes in the natural environment that are the result of human activities are becoming evident. Since these changes are interrelated and can not be investigated without interdisciplinary collaboration between scientific fields, Earth system science (ESS) is required to provide a framework for recognizing anew the Earth system as one composed of its interacting subsystems. The concept of ESS has been partially realized by Earth system models (ESMs). In this paper, we focus on modeling in ESS, review related findings mainly from the latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and introduce tasks under discussion for the next phases of the following areas of science: the global nitrogen cycle, ocean acidification, land-use and land-cover change, ESMs of intermediate complexity, climate geoengineering, ocean CO2 uptake, and deposition of bioavailable iron in marine ecosystems. Since responding to global change is a pressing mission in Earth science, modeling will continue to contribute to the cooperative growth of diversifying disciplines and expanding ESS, because modeling connects traditional disciplines through explicit interaction between them.