Development and validation of a model for predicting the expression of Ki-67 in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma with radiological features and dual-energy computed tomography quantitative parameters

Abstract

Abstract Objective To construct and validate a model based on the dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) quantitative parameters and radiological features to predict Ki-67 expression levels in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Materials and methods Data from 143 PDAC patients were analysed. The variables of clinic, radiology and DECT were evaluated. In the arterial phase and portal venous phase (PVP), the normalized iodine concentration (NIC), normalized effective atomic number and slope of the spectral attenuation curves were measured. The extracellular volume fraction (ECVf) was measured in the equilibrium phase. Univariate analysis was used to screen independent risk factors to predict Ki-67 expression. The Radiology, DECT and DECT–Radiology models were constructed, and their diagnostic effectiveness and clinical applicability were obtained through area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis, respectively. The nomogram was established based on the optimal model, and its goodness-of-fit was assessed by a calibration curve. Results Computed tomography reported regional lymph node status, NIC of PVP, and ECVf were independent predictors for Ki-67 expression prediction. The AUCs of the Radiology, DECT, and DECT–Radiology models were 0.705, 0.884, and 0.905, respectively, in the training cohort, and 0.669, 0.835, and 0.865, respectively, in the validation cohort. The DECT–Radiology nomogram was established based on the DECT–Radiology model, which showed the highest net benefit and satisfactory consistency. Conclusions The DECT–Radiology model shows favourable predictive efficacy for Ki-67 expression, which may be of value for clinical decision-making in PDAC patients. Critical relevance statement The DECT–Radiology model could contribute to the preoperative and non-invasive assessment of Ki-67 expression of PDAC, which may help clinicians to screen out PDAC patients with high Ki-67 expression. Key points • Dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) can predict Ki-67 in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). • The DECT–Radiology model facilitates preoperative and non-invasive assessment of PDAC Ki-67 expression. • The nomogram may help screen out PDAC patients with high Ki-67 expression. Graphical Abstract