Prediction of late recurrence after curative-intent resection using MRI-measured spleen volume in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma and cirrhosis

Abstract

Abstract Background Late recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver resection is regarded as a de novo tumor primarily related to the severity of underlying liver disease. We aimed to investigate risk factors, especially spleen volume, associated with late recurrence in patients with HCC and cirrhosis. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 301 patients with HCC and cirrhosis who received curative resection and preoperative MRI. Patients were followed for late recurrence for at least 2 years. Spleen volume was automatically measured on MRI with artificial intelligence techniques, and qualitative MRI imaging features reflecting tumor aggressiveness were evaluated. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors and a risk score was developed to predict late recurrence. Results Eighty-four (27.9%) patients developed late recurrence during follow-up. Preoperative spleen volume was independently associated with late recurrence, and patients with a volume > 370 cm3 had significantly higher recurrence risk (hazard ratio 2.02, 95%CI 1.31–3.12, p = 0.002). Meanwhile, no qualitative imaging features were associated with late recurrence. A risk score was developed based on the APRI score, spleen volume, and tumor number, which had time-dependent area under the curve ranging from 0.700 to 0.751. The risk score at a cutoff of 0.42 allowed for the identification of two risk categories with distinct risk of late recurrence. Conclusions Preoperative spleen volume on MRI was independently associated with late recurrence after curative-intent resection in patients with HCC and cirrhosis. A risk score was proposed for individualized risk prediction and tailoring of postoperative surveillance strategies. Critical relevance statement Spleen volume measured on MRI with the aid of AI techniques was independently predictive of late HCC recurrence after liver resection. A risk score based on spleen volume, APRI score, and tumor number was developed for accurate prediction of late recurrence. Key points • Preoperative spleen volume measured on MRI was independently associated with late recurrence after curative-intent resection in patients with HCC and cirrhosis. • Qualitative MRI features reflecting tumor aggressiveness were not associated with late recurrence. • A risk score based on spleen volume was developed for accurate prediction of late recurrence and risk stratification. Graphical Abstract