Author:
Thomas Anne,Bakai Tchaa A.,Atcha-Oubou Tinah,Tchadjobo Tchassama,Bossard Nadine,Rabilloud Muriel,Voirin Nicolas
Abstract
Abstract
Background
This study aimed to assess the seasonality of confirmed malaria cases in Togo and to provide new indicators of malaria seasonality to the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP).
Methods
Aggregated data of confirmed malaria cases were collected monthly from 2008 to 2017 by the Togo’s NMCP and stratified by health district and according to three target groups: children < 5 years old, children ≥ 5 years old and adults, and pregnant women. Time series analysis was carried out for each target group and health district. Seasonal decomposition was used to assess the seasonality of confirmed malaria cases. Maximum and minimum seasonal indices, their corresponding months, and the ratio of maximum/minimum seasonal indices reflecting the importance of malaria transmission, were provided by health district and target group.
Results
From 2008 to 2017, 7,951,757 malaria cases were reported in Togo. Children < 5 years old, children ≥ 5 years old and adults, and pregnant women represented 37.1%, 57.7% and 5.2% of the confirmed malaria cases, respectively. The maximum seasonal indices were observed during or shortly after a rainy season and the minimum seasonal indices during the dry season between January and April in particular. In children < 5 years old, the ratio of maximum/minimum seasonal indices was higher in the north, suggesting a higher seasonal malaria transmission, than in the south of Togo. This is also observed in the other two groups but to a lesser extent.
Conclusions
This study contributes to a better understanding of malaria seasonality in Togo. The indicators of malaria seasonality could allow for more accurate forecasting in malaria interventions and supply planning throughout the year.
Funder
Région Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes
Association Nationale de la Recherche et de la Technologie
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
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