A preliminary prediction model of pediatric Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia based on routine blood parameters by using machine learning method

Abstract

Abstract Background The prevalence and severity of pediatric Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP) poses a significant threat to the health and lives of children. In this study, we aim to systematically evaluate the value of routine blood parameters in predicting MPP and develop a robust and generalizable ensemble artificial intelligence (AI) model to assist in identifying patients with MPP. Methods We collected 27 features, including routine blood parameters and hs-CRP levels, from patients admitted to The Affiliated Dazu’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University with or without MPP between January, 2023 and January, 2024. A classification model was built using seven machine learning (ML) algorithms to develop an integrated prediction tool for diagnosing MPP. It was evaluated on both an internal validation set (982 individuals) and an external validation set (195 individuals). The primary outcome measured the accuracy of the model in predicting MPP. Results The GBDT is state-of-the-art based on 27 features. Following inter-laboratory cohort testing, the GBDT demonstrated an AUC, accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, PPV, NPV, and F1-score of 0.980 (0.938–0.995), 0.928 (0.796–0.970), 0.929 (0.717-1.000), 0.926 (0.889–0.956), 0.922 (0.727-1.000), 0.937 (0.884–0.963), and 0.923 (0.800-0.966) in stratified 10-fold cross-validation. A GBDT-based AI Lab was developed to facilitate the healthcare providers in remote and impoverished areas. Conclusions The GBDT-based AI Lab tool, with high sensitivity and specificity, could help discriminate between pediatric MPP infection and non-MPP infection based on routine blood parameters. Moreover, a user-friendly webpage tool for AI Lab could facilitate healthcare providers in remote and impoverished areas where advanced technologies are not accessible.