Author:
Berra Thaís Zamboni,Ramos Antônio Carlos Vieira,Arroyo Luiz Henrique,Delpino Felipe Mendes,de Almeida Crispim Juliane,Alves Yan Mathias,dos Santos Felipe Lima,da Costa Fernanda Bruzadelli Paulino,dos Santos Márcio Souza,Alves Luana Seles,Fiorati Regina Célia,Monroe Aline Aparecida,Gomes Dulce,Arcêncio Ricardo Alexandre
Abstract
Abstract
Objectives
To identify risk-prone areas for the spread of tuberculosis, analyze spatial variation and temporal trends of the disease in these areas and identify their determinants in a high burden city.
Methods
An ecological study was carried out in Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, Brazil. The population was composed of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported in the Tuberculosis Patient Control System between 2006 and 2017. Seasonal Trend Decomposition using the Loess decomposition method was used. Spatial and spatiotemporal scanning statistics were applied to identify risk areas. Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends (SVTT) was used to detect risk-prone territories with changes in the temporal trend. Finally, Pearson's Chi-square test was performed to identify factors associated with the epidemiological situation in the municipality.
Results
Between 2006 and 2017, 1760 cases of pulmonary tuberculosis were reported in the municipality. With spatial scanning, four groups of clusters were identified with relative risks (RR) from 0.19 to 0.52, 1.73, 2.07, and 2.68 to 2.72. With the space–time scan, four clusters were also identified with RR of 0.13 (2008–2013), 1.94 (2010–2015), 2.34 (2006 to 2011), and 2.84 (2014–2017). With the SVTT, a cluster was identified with RR 0.11, an internal time trend of growth (+ 0.09%/year), and an external time trend of decrease (− 0.06%/year). Finally, three risk factors and three protective factors that are associated with the epidemiological situation in the municipality were identified, being: race/brown color (OR: 1.26), without education (OR: 1.71), retired (OR: 1.35), 15 years or more of study (OR: 0.73), not having HIV (OR: 0.55) and not having diabetes (OR: 0.35).
Conclusion
The importance of using spatial analysis tools in identifying areas that should be prioritized for TB control is highlighted, and greater attention is necessary for individuals who fit the profile indicated as “at risk” for the disease.
Funder
Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
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