A predictive nomogram for mortality of cancer patients with invasive candidiasis: a 10-year study in a cancer center of North China

Abstract

Abstract Background Invasive candidiasis is the most common fungal disease among hospitalized patients and continues to be a major cause of mortality. Risk factors for mortality have been studied previously but rarely developed into a predictive nomogram, especially for cancer patients. We constructed a nomogram for mortality prediction based on a retrospective review of 10 years of data for cancer patients with invasive candidiasis. Methods Clinical data for cancer patients with invasive candidiasis during the period of 2010–2019 were studied; the cases were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. Variables in the training cohort were subjected to a predictive nomogram based on multivariate logistic regression analysis and a stepwise algorithm. We assessed the performance of the nomogram through the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) in both the training and validation cohorts. Results A total of 207 cases of invasive candidiasis were examined, and the crude 30-day mortality was 28.0%. Candida albicans (48.3%) was the predominant species responsible for infection, followed by the Candida glabrata complex (24.2%) and Candida tropicalis (10.1%). The training and validation cohorts contained 147 and 60 cases, respectively. The predictive nomogram consisted of bloodstream infections, intensive care unit (ICU) admitted > 3 days, no prior surgery, metastasis and no source control. The AUCs of the training and validation cohorts were 0.895 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.846–0.945) and 0.862 (95% CI, 0.770–0.955), respectively. The net benefit of the model performed better than “treatment for all” in DCA and was also better for opting low-risk patients out of treatment than “treatment for none” in opt-out DCA. Conclusion Cancer patients with invasive candidiasis exhibit high crude mortality. The predictive nomogram established in this study can provide a probability of mortality for a given patient, which will be beneficial for therapeutic strategies and outcome improvement.