Establishment of a risk prediction model for residual low back pain in thoracolumbar osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures after percutaneous kyphoplasty

Author:

Tu Weiqiao,Niu Yanping,Su Peng,Liu Di,Lin Fanguo,Sun Yongming

Abstract

Abstract Objective This study aims to identify potential independent risk factors for residual low back pain (LBP) in patients with thoracolumbar osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) following percutaneous kyphoplasty (PKP) treatment. Additionally, we aim to develop a nomogram that can accurately predict the occurrence of residual LBP. Methods We conducted a retrospective review of the medical records of thoracolumbar OVCFs patients who underwent PKP treatment at our hospital between July 2021 and December 2022. Residual LBP was defined as the presence of moderate or greater pain (VAS score ≥ 4) in the low back one day after surgery, and patients were divided into two groups: the LBP group and the non-LBP group. These patients were then randomly allocated to either a training or a validation set in the ratio of 7:3. To identify potential risk factors for residual LBP, we employed lasso regression for multivariate analysis, and from this, we constructed a nomogram. Subsequently, the predictive accuracy and practical clinical application of the nomogram were evaluated through a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, a calibration curve, and a decision curve analysis (DCA). Results Our predictive model revealed that five variables—posterior fascial oedema, intravertebral vacuum cleft, time from fracture to surgery, sarcopenia, and interspinous ligament degeneration—were correlated with the presence of residual LBP. In the training set, the area under the ROC was 0.844 (95% CI 0.772–0.917), and in the validation set, it was 0.842 (95% CI 0.744–0.940), indicating that the model demonstrated strong discriminative performance. Furthermore, the predictions closely matched actual observations in both the training and validation sets. The decision curve analysis (DCA) curve suggested that the model provides a substantial net clinical benefit. Conclusions We have created a novel numerical model capable of accurately predicting the potential risk factors associated with the occurrence of residual LBP following PKP in thoracolumbar OVCFs patients. This model serves as a valuable tool for guiding specific clinical decisions for patients with OVCFs.

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Orthopedics and Sports Medicine,Surgery

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3