Do early trends in oak barrens fire treatment predict later outcomes? Insights from three decades of vegetation monitoring

Abstract

Abstract Background Vegetation structure, species diversity, and composition have been monitored at a fire-treatment and a fire-free control unit of a dry oak barrens and woodland complex in southern Illinois, USA, over a 29-year period and five burns. The restoration hypothesis is that fire management would result in different trends for vegetation parameters of conservation interest between fire treatment and control units, that before–after differences would be greater with fire management, and that early trends provide a reliable predictor for later outcomes. This study examines effectiveness of management in achieving restoration goals and uses response to the first two burns and monitoring results over the first seven years as an estimation period to test whether early trends with fire treatment are a reliable predictor for outcomes following three additional burns over the following 22 years. Results Trends differed between fire-treatment and control units for all parameters measured, and before–after differences were greater at the fire treatment unit. However, trends at the fire-treatment unit during the estimation period were a poor predictor of later outcomes. Tree density and basal area declined more than expected while ground-layer species density, richness, diversity, and percent cover did not keep pace with expectations of increase. Trends at the control unit were more predictable; however, tree basal area declined more than expected, possibly due to an outbreak of rapid white oak mortality disease, and decline of ground-layer species density was less than predicted from the early estimation period. Conclusions Results suggested that fire alone can be effective at restoring woodland and barrens natural areas and that a fire return interval of about every four years would be optimal for maintaining composition and diversity in this specific oak barrens habitat. However, burns followed immediately by severe drought possibly can have negative interactions, resulting in declines of ground-layer species diversity.