Author:
Fan Yunping,Yang Tingjun,Liu Yuhan,Gan Haibin,Li Xiaohua,Luo Yanrong,Yang Xuping,Pang Qianyun
Abstract
Abstract
Objective
To retrospectively analyze the risk factors for postoperative delirium (POD) after orthopedic surgery in elderly patients and establish an individualized nomogram to predict the risk of POD.
Methods
The data of 1011 patients who underwent orthopedic surgery from January 2019 to January 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic analyses were used to screen for independent risk factors. Stepwise regression was conducted to screen risk factors to construct a nomogram to predict the risk of POD after orthopedic surgery in elderly individuals, and nomogram validation analyses were performed.
Results
The logistic regression results showed that age (≥ 75 years old vs. < 75 years old; odds ratio (OR) = 2.889; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.149, 7.264), sex (male vs. female, OR = 2.368; 95% CI, 1.066, 5.261), and preoperative cognitive impairment (yes vs. no, OR = 13.587; 95% CI, 4.360, 42.338) were independent risk factors for POD in elderly patients who underwent orthopedic surgery (P < 0.05). A nomogram was constructed using 7 risk factors, i.e., age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, sex, preoperative hemoglobin (Hb), preoperative pulmonary disease, cognitive impairment, and intraoperative infusion volume. The area under the curve (AUC) showed good discrimination (0.867), the slope of the calibration curve was 1.0, and the optimal net benefit of the nomogram from the decision curve analysis (DCA) was 0.01–0.58.
Conclusion
This study used 7 risk factors to construct a nomogram to predict the risk of POD after major orthopedic surgery in elderly individuals, and the nomogram had good discrimination ability, accuracy, and clinical practicability.
Funder
Medical Research Project of Chongqing Municipal Health Commission
Chongqing Science and Health commission medical research project
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC