A formula for predicting emphysema extent in combined idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema

Abstract

Abstract Background No single pulmonary function test captures the functional effect of emphysema in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Without experienced radiologists, other methods are needed to determine emphysema extent. Here, we report the development and validation of a formula to predict emphysema extent in patients with IPF and emphysema. Methods The development cohort included 76 patients with combined IPF and emphysema at the Royal Brompton Hospital, London, United Kingdom. The formula was derived using stepwise regression to generate the weighted combination of pulmonary function data that fitted best with emphysema extent on high-resolution computed tomography. Test cohorts included patients from two clinical trials (n = 455 [n = 174 with emphysema]; NCT00047645, NCT00075998) and a real-world cohort from the Royal Brompton Hospital (n = 191 [n = 110 with emphysema]). The formula is only applicable for patients with IPF and concomitant emphysema and accordingly was not used to detect the presence or absence of emphysema. Results The formula was: predicted emphysema extent = 12.67 + (0.92 x percent predicted forced vital capacity) – (0.65 x percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second) – (0.52 x percent predicted carbon monoxide diffusing capacity). A significant relationship between the formula and observed emphysema extent was found in both cohorts (R2 = 0.25, P < 0.0001; R2 = 0.47, P < 0.0001, respectively). In both, the formula better predicted observed emphysema extent versus individual pulmonary function tests. A 15% emphysema extent threshold, calculated using the formula, identified a significant difference in absolute changes from baseline in forced vital capacity at Week 48 in patients with baseline-predicted emphysema extent < 15% versus ≥ 15% (P = 0.0105). Conclusion The formula, designed for use in patients with IPF and emphysema, demonstrated enhanced ability to predict emphysema extent versus individual pulmonary function tests. Trial registration NCT00047645; NCT00075998.