Authentic fault models and dispersive tsunami simulations for outer-rise normal earthquakes in the southern Kuril Trench

Abstract

AbstractThe southern Kuril Trench is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. In this study, marine surveys and observations were performed to construct fault models for possible outer-rise earthquakes. Seismic and seafloor bathymetric surveys indicated that the dip angle of the outer-rise fault was approximately 50°–80°, with a strike that was slightly oblique to the axis of the Kuril Trench. The maximum fault length was estimated to be ~ 260 km. Based on these findings, we proposed 17 fault models, with moment magnitudes ranging from 7.2 to 8.4. To numerically simulate tsunami, we solved two-dimensional dispersive wave and three-dimensional Euler equations using the outer-rise fault models. The results of both simulations yielded identical predictions for tsunami with short-wavelength components, resulting in significant dispersive deformations in the open ocean. We also found that tsunami generated by outer-rise earthquakes were affected by refraction and diffraction because of the source location beyond the trench axis. These findings can improve future predictions of tsunami hazards. Graphical Abstract