A mathematical model of Marburg virus disease outbreaks and the potential role of vaccination in control

Abstract

Abstract Background Marburg virus disease is an acute haemorrhagic fever caused by Marburg virus. Marburg virus is zoonotic, maintained in nature in Egyptian fruit bats, with occasional spillover infections into humans and nonhuman primates. Although rare, sporadic cases and outbreaks occur in Africa, usually associated with exposure to bats in mines or caves, and sometimes with secondary human-to-human transmission. Outbreaks outside of Africa have also occurred due to importation of infected monkeys. Although all previous Marburg virus disease outbreaks have been brought under control without vaccination, there is nevertheless the potential for large outbreaks when implementation of public health measures is not possible or breaks down. Vaccines could thus be an important additional tool, and development of several candidate vaccines is under way. Methods We developed a branching process model of Marburg virus transmission and investigated the potential effects of several prophylactic and reactive vaccination strategies in settings driven primarily by multiple spillover events as well as human-to-human transmission. Linelist data from the 15 outbreaks up until 2022, as well as an Approximate Bayesian Computational framework, were used to inform the model parameters. Results Our results show a low basic reproduction number which varied across outbreaks, from 0.5 [95% CI 0.05–1.8] to 1.2 [95% CI 1.0–1.9] but a high case fatality ratio. Of six vaccination strategies explored, the two prophylactic strategies (mass and targeted vaccination of high-risk groups), as well as a combination of ring and targeted vaccination, were generally most effective, with a probability of potential outbreaks being terminated within 1 year of 0.90 (95% CI 0.90–0.91), 0.89 (95% CI 0.88–0.90), and 0.88 (95% CI 0.87–0.89) compared with 0.68 (0.67–0.69) for no vaccination, especially if the outbreak is driven by zoonotic spillovers and the vaccination campaign initiated as soon as possible after onset of the first case. Conclusions Our study shows that various vaccination strategies can be effective in helping to control outbreaks of MVD, with the best approach varying with the particular epidemiologic circumstances of each outbreak.