Abstract
Abstract
Background
To contain the spread of COVID-19, a cordon sanitaire was put in place in Wuhan prior to the Lunar New Year, on 23 January 2020. We assess the efficacy of the cordon sanitaire to delay the introduction and onset of local transmission of COVID-19 in other major cities in mainland China.
Methods
We estimated the number of infected travellers from Wuhan to other major cities in mainland China from November 2019 to February 2020 using previously estimated COVID-19 prevalence in Wuhan and publicly available mobility data. We focused on Beijing, Chongqing, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen as four representative major cities to identify the potential independent contribution of the cordon sanitaire and holiday travel. To do this, we simulated outbreaks generated by infected arrivals in these destination cities using stochastic branching processes. We also modelled the effect of the cordon sanitaire in combination with reduced transmissibility scenarios to simulate the effect of local non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Results
We find that in the four cities, given the potentially high prevalence of COVID-19 in Wuhan between December 2019 and early January 2020, local transmission may have been seeded as early as 1–8 January 2020. By the time the cordon sanitaire was imposed, infections were likely in the thousands. The cordon sanitaire alone did not substantially affect the epidemic progression in these cities, although it may have had some effect in smaller cities. Reduced transmissibility resulted in a notable decrease in the incidence of infection in the four studied cities.
Conclusions
Our results indicate that sustained transmission was likely occurring several weeks prior to the implementation of the cordon sanitaire in four major cities of mainland China and that the observed decrease in incidence was likely attributable to other non-pharmaceutical, transmission-reducing interventions.
Funder
National Institute for Health Research
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Department of Health and Social Care
Wellcome Trust
Global Challenges Research Fund
Sir Henry Dale Fellowship
Health Data Research UK
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Reference38 articles.
1. World Health Organisation. Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports. Accessed 30 Mar 2020.
2. Virus-hit Chinese city shuts public transport. BBC News. 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51215348. Accessed 1 Apr 2020.
3. Il governo firma il decreto coronavirus: l’Italia divisa in 3 zone (Translated: The government signs the coronavirus decree: Italy divided into 3 areas). la Repubblica. 2020. https://www.repubblica.it/politica/2020/03/01/news/coronavirus_misure_governo-249980561/. Accessed 1 Apr 2020.
4. Zurcher A. Trump’s virus travel ban on Europe comes into force. BBC News 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51883728. Accessed 1 Apr 2020.
5. Mateus AL, Otete HE, Beck CR, Dolan GP, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS. Effectiveness of travel restrictions in the rapid containment of human influenza: a systematic review. WHO. 2014. https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/92/12/14-135590/en/. Accessed 29 Jun 2020.
Cited by
29 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献