Additional risk factors improve mortality prediction for patients hospitalized with influenza pneumonia: a retrospective, single-center case–control study

Abstract

Abstract Background Severe influenza, especially influenza pneumonia, causes large numbers of deaths each year. Some patients who develop severe influenza have no known risk factors. In this study we investigated risk factors for mortality of patients with influenza A-related pneumonia who have different basic conditions. We also evaluated the power of pneumonia severity assessment tools in Chinese patients hospitalized with influenza A-related pneumonia. Together, these results could provide a basis for a screening method that has improved ability for the early identification of critical patients who will have poor prognoses in clinical practice. Methods This single-center, retrospective case–control study included 152 adult patients with severe influenza over six influenza seasons. Data for diagnoses and demographics, as well clinical data, laboratory findings, treatment methods, 30-day and 60-day outcomes of the patients were collected. Patients who had any of the risk factors for severe influenza were included in the high-risk group, and those that had no known risk factors were included in the low-risk group. Results The PSI, CURB-65 and PIRO-CAP tools all underestimated the mortality rate of patients hospitalized with influenza A-related pneumonia, and this underestimate was more pronounced for low-risk patients. D-dimer (Odds ratio [OR] = 1.052, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.001–1.106, p = 0.045) and direct bilirubin (OR = 1.143, 95%CI 1.049–1.246, p = 0.002) were independent risk factors for mortality of patients with influenza A-related pneumonia. When used in combination with ferritin and D-dimer, the area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUCROC) was 0.851 (95%CI 0.780–0.922, p < 0.001), 0.840 (95%CI 0.763–0.916, p < 0.001) and 0.829 (95%CI 0.748–0.911, p < 0.001) for PSI, CURB-65 and PIRO-CAP, respectively, which was higher than that obtained using PSI, CURB-65 and PIRO-CAP alone. Conclusions The findings demonstrate that currently used community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) scoring systems could underestimate the risk of influenza A-related pneumonia mortality. D-dimer was shown to be an independent risk factor of mortality for influenza A-related pneumonia in hospitalized patients, and a combination of D-dimer with ferritin could improve the predictive value of PSI, CURB-65 and PIRO-CAP for adverse prognoses of patients with influenza A-related pneumonia.