Machine learning classifier is associated with mortality in interstitial lung disease: a retrospective validation study leveraging registry data

Abstract

Abstract Background Mortality prediction in interstitial lung disease (ILD) poses a significant challenge to clinicians due to heterogeneity across disease subtypes. Currently, forced vital capacity (FVC) and Gender, Age, and Physiology (GAP) score are the two most utilized metrics in prognostication. Recently, a machine learning classifier system, Fibresolve, designed to identify a variety of computed tomography (CT) patterns associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), was demonstrated to have a significant association with mortality across multiple subtypes of ILD. The purpose of this follow-up study was to retrospectively validate these findings in a large, external cohort of patients with ILD. Methods In this multi-center validation study, Fibresolve was applied to chest CT scans of patients with confirmed ILD that had available follow-up data. Fibresolve scores categorized by tertile were analyzed using Cox regression analysis adjusted for tobacco use and modified GAP (mGAP) score. Results Of 643 patients included, 446 (69.3%) died over a median follow-up time of 144 [1-821] weeks. The median [range] mGAP score was 5 [3–7]. In multivariable analysis, Fibresolve score categorized by tertile was significantly associated with mortality (Tertile 2 HR 1.47, 95% CI 0.82–2.37, p = 0.11; Tertile 3 HR 3.12, 95% CI 1.98–4.90, p < 0.001). Subgroup analyses revealed significant associations amongst those with non-IPF ILDs (Tertile 2 HR 1.95, 95% CI 1.28–2.97, Tertile 3 HR 4.66, 95% CI 2.94–7.38) and severe disease, defined by a FVC ≤ 75% (Tertile 2 HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.43–3.67, Tertile 3 HR 4.80, 95% CI 2.93–7.86). Conclusions Fibresolve is independently associated with mortality in ILD, particularly amongst patients with non-IPF ILDs and in those with severe disease.