The PROgnostic ModEl for chronic lung disease (PRO-MEL): development and temporal validation

Abstract

Abstract Background Patients with chronic lung diseases (CLDs), defined as progressive and life-limiting respiratory conditions, experience a heavy symptom burden as the conditions become more advanced, but palliative referral rates are low and late. Prognostic tools can help clinicians identify CLD patients at high risk of deterioration for needs assessments and referral to palliative care. As current prognostic tools may not generalize well across all CLD conditions, we aim to develop and validate a general model to predict one-year mortality in patients presenting with any CLD. Methods A retrospective cohort study of patients with a CLD diagnosis at a public hospital from July 2016 to October 2017 was conducted. The outcome of interest was all-cause mortality within one-year of diagnosis. Potential prognostic factors were identified from reviews of prognostic studies in CLD, and data was extracted from electronic medical records. Missing data was imputed using multiple imputation by chained equations. Logistic regression models were developed using variable selection methods and validated in patients seen from January 2018 to December 2019. Discriminative ability, calibration and clinical usefulness of the model was assessed. Model coefficients and performance were pooled across all imputed datasets and reported. Results Of the 1000 patients, 122 (12.2%) died within one year. Patients had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or emphysema (55%), bronchiectasis (38%), interstitial lung diseases (12%), or multiple diagnoses (6%). The model selected through forward stepwise variable selection had the highest AUC (0.77 (0.72–0.82)) and consisted of ten prognostic factors. The model AUC for the validation cohort was 0.75 (0.70, 0.81), and the calibration intercept and slope were − 0.14 (-0.54, 0.26) and 0.74 (0.53, 0.95) respectively. Classifying patients with a predicted risk of death exceeding 0.30 as high risk, the model would correctly identify 3 out 10 decedents and 9 of 10 survivors. Conclusions We developed and validated a prognostic model for one-year mortality in patients with CLD using routinely available administrative data. The model will support clinicians in identifying patients across various CLD etiologies who are at risk of deterioration for a basic palliative care assessment to identify unmet needs and trigger an early referral to palliative medicine. Trial registration Not applicable (retrospective study).