Predictive analytics using Big Data for the real estate market during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

AbstractAs the COVID-19 pandemic came unexpectedly, many real estate experts claimed that the property values would fall like the 2007 crash. However, this study raises the question of what attributes of an apartment are most likely to influence a price revision during the pandemic. The findings in prior studies have lacked consensus, especially regarding the time-on-the-market variable, which exhibits an omnidirectional effect. However, with the rise of Big Data, this study used a web-scraping algorithm and collected a total of 18,992 property listings in the city of Vilnius during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Afterwards, 15 different machine learning models were applied to forecast apartment revisions, and the SHAP values for interpretability were used. The findings in this study coincide with the previous literature results, affirming that real estate is quite resilient to pandemics, as the price drops were not as dramatic as first believed. Out of the 15 different models tested, extreme gradient boosting was the most accurate, although the difference was negligible. The retrieved SHAP values conclude that the time-on-the-market variable was by far the most dominant and consistent variable for price revision forecasting. Additionally, the time-on-the-market variable exhibited an inverse U-shaped behaviour.