Author:
Haxhija Zana,Seder David B,May Teresa L,Hassager Christian,Friberg Hans,Lilja Gisela,Ceric Ameldina,Nielsen Niklas,Dankiewicz Josef
Abstract
Abstract
Background
The CREST model is a prediction model, quantitating the risk of circulatory-etiology death (CED) after cardiac arrest based on variables available at hospital admission, and intend to guide the triage of comatose patients without ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction after successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation. This study assessed performance of the CREST model in the Target Temperature Management (TTM) trial cohort.
Methods
We retrospectively analyzed data from resuscitated out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients in the TTM-trial. Demographics, clinical characteristics, and CREST variables (history of coronary artery disease, initial heart rhythm, initial ejection fraction, shock at admission and ischemic time > 25 min) were assessed in univariate and multivariable analysis. The primary outcome was CED. The discriminatory power of the logistic regression model was assessed using the C-statistic and goodness of fit was tested according to Hosmer-Lemeshow.
Results
Among 329 patients eligible for final analysis, 71 (22%) had CED. History of ischemic heart disease, previous arrhythmia, older age, initial non-shockable rhythm, shock at admission, ischemic time > 25 min and severe left ventricular dysfunction were variables associated with CED in univariate analysis. CREST variables were entered into a logistic regression model and the area under the curve for the model was 0.73 with adequate calibration according to Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.602).
Conclusions
The CREST model had good validity and a discrimination capability for predicting circulatory-etiology death after resuscitation from cardiac arrest without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Application of this model could help to triage high-risk patients for transfer to specialized cardiac centers.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
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