The predictive effect of direct-indirect bilirubin ratio on clinical events in acute coronary syndrome: results from an observational cohort study in north China

Abstract

Abstract Background: Patients with extremely high-risk ASCVD usually suffered poor prognosis, bilirubin is considered closely related to cardiovascular outcomes. However, there is controversy over the relationship between bilirubin and coronary artery disease. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the DIBIL ratio in patients with extremely high-risk ASCVD. Methods: 10,260 consecutive patients with extremely high-risk ASCVD were enrolled in this study. All patients were divided into three groups according to their DIBIL ratio. The incidence of MACCEs was recorded, and in a competing risk regression, the incidence of MACCEs and their subgroups were recorded. The direct-indirect bilirubin ratio (DIBIL ratio) was calculated by the direct bilirubin (umol/L)/indirect bilirubin (umol/L) ratio, all laboratory values were obtained from the first fasting blood samples during hospitalization. Results: The area under the ROC curve of the DIBIL ratio to predict the occurrence of all-cause death was 0.668, the cut-off value of which is 0.275. Competing risk regression indicated that DIBIL ratio was positively correlated with all-cause death [1.829 (1.405–2.381), p < 0.001], CV death [1.600 (1.103, 2.321), p = 0.013]. The addition of DIBIL ratio to a baseline risk model had an incremental effect on the predictive value for all-cause death [IDI 0.004(0, 0.010), p < 0.001; C-index 0.805(0.783–0.827), p < 0.001]. Conclusion: The DIBIL ratio was an excellent tool to predict poor prognosis, suggesting that this index may be developed as a biomarker for risk stratification and prognosis in extremely ASCVD patients.