Exploratory analysis of predictors of ventricular aneurysm in a cohort of 291 patients with acute myocardial infarction

Abstract

Abstract Objective In this study, we explored the determinants of ventricular aneurysm development following acute myocardial infarction (AMI), thereby prompting timely interventions to enhance patient prognosis. Methods In this retrospective cohort analysis, we evaluated 297 AMI patients admitted to the First People’s Hospital of Changzhou. The study was structured as follows. Comprehensive baseline data collection included hematological evaluations, ECG, echocardiography, and coronary angiography upon admission. Within 3 months post-AMI, cardiac ultrasounds were administered to detect ventricular aneurysm development. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were employed to pinpoint the determinants of ventricular aneurysm formation. Subsequently, a predictive model was formulated for ventricular aneurysm post-AMI. Moreover, the diagnostic efficacy of this model was appraised using the ROC curves. Results In our analysis of 291 AMI patients, spanning an age range of 32–91 years, 247 were male (84.9%). At the conclusion of a 3-month observational period, the cohort bifurcated into two subsets: 278 patients without ventricular aneurysm and 13 with evident ventricular aneurysm. Distinguishing features of the ventricular aneurysm subgroup were markedly higher values for age, B-type natriuretic peptide(BNP), Left atrium(LA), Left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (LEVDD), left ventricular end systolic diameter (LVEWD), E-wave velocity (E), Left atrial volume (LAV), E/A ratio (E/A), E/e ratio (E/e), ECG with elevated adjacent four leads(4 ST-Elevation), and anterior wall myocardial infarction(AWMI) compared to their counterparts (p < 0.05). Among the singular predictive factors, total cholesterol (TC) emerged as the most significant predictor for ventricular aneurysm development, exhibiting an AUC of 0.704. However, upon crafting a multifactorial model that incorporated gender, TC, an elevated ST-segment in adjacent four leads, and anterior wall infarction, its diagnostic capability: notably surpassed that of the standalone TC, yielding an AUC of 0.883 (z = -9.405, p = 0.000) as opposed to 0.704. Multivariate predictive model included gender, total cholesterol, ST elevation in 4 adjacent leads, anterior myocardial infarction, the multivariate predictive model showed better diagnostic efficacy than single factor index TC (AUC: 0. 883 vs. 0.704,z =-9.405, p = 0.000), it also improved predictive power for correctly reclassifying ventricular aneurysm occurrence in patients with AMI, NRI = 28.42% (95% CI: 6.29-50.55%; p = 0.012). Decision curve analysis showed that the use of combination model had a positive net benefit. Conclusion Lipid combined with ECG model after myocardial infarction could be used to predict the formation of ventricular aneurysm and aimed to optimize and adjust treatment strategies.